Bill Maher, the host of HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” has expressed firm belief that former President Donald Trump will not win the 2024 presidential election. Maher’s prediction comes amidst increasing unease among Americans about the forthcoming election and recent polls demonstrating a close contest between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
In a recent episode of his show, Maher confidently predicted the election results, leaving his guest panelists, including Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari, author Fran Lebowitz, and political analyst Ian Bremmer, somewhat taken aback.
“No, not at all,” said Maher when queried about his concerns for the upcoming election. “Yeah, no, no, no, he’s definitely going to lose. You just feel it.”
Contrasting sharply with Maher’s confidence, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from September 11-13, 2024 found that 67% of Americans are anxious about the impending election, with 31% feeling significantly anxious and 36% expressing some level of anxiety.
The reasons for this unease are multifaceted, with 64% of those polled expressing concern about the election’s effect on the economy and 60% fearing potential political violence. Furthermore, 48% are worried that the election results may not be accepted, while 39% are apprehensive that the election could be manipulated.
Despite Maher’s assuredness, recent polling data suggests a neck-and-neck race. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 3-6, 2024, shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. The poll also implies that the race remains competitive in key battleground states, with both candidates having a realistic chance to win.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump appears to have the upper hand. The New York Times/Siena College polls suggest that Trump is leading Harris by 50% to 45% in Arizona, carrying a 4-point lead in Georgia, and a 3-point lead in North Carolina.
On the other hand, Harris holds a slim advantage in several other pivotal swing states. The same polling organization found Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points among likely voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
According to a Pew Research Center survey, the economy remains the top priority for voters, with 81% of registered voters indicating it will be very important to their vote. Other key concerns include healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, and abortion for Harris supporters, while Trump supporters rank immigration and violent crime alongside the economy.
A Gallup poll reveals an increasing partisan divide on election integrity. The gap between Democrats and Republicans in their confidence that votes will be accurately cast and counted has reached a record-high 56-percentage-point. While 84% of Democrats express trust in the accuracy of the vote, only 28% of Republicans share this confidence.
Maher, who has previously described himself as a “Trump alarmist,” asserts that his past skepticism lends credibility to his current prediction. “I’ve already put my marker down on that,” Maher said, adding that he remains persuaded of the result, regardless of close polling data leading up to the election day.
However, Maher’s certainty is not universally shared. GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson challenges his confidence, pointing out that Trump remains competitive in battleground states despite voters being well aware of his character and policies.
With the election drawing near, both campaigns are focusing their efforts on key swing states, acknowledging the potential for another closely contested and potentially contentious outcome. As the shortest presidential election cycle in modern American history rapidly approaches its conclusion, both Harris and Trump are left with limited time to sway the electorate in their favor.
The 2024 presidential election remains a topic of considerable interest and concern for many Americans, as its outcome could significantly influence the nation’s future direction on critical issues such as the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy.
