Hillary Clinton made international headlines in August 2025 when she promised to personally nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he successfully brokered a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Nearly a year later, with that conflict still grinding on and a new war in Iran consuming the White House’s attention, Clinton’s bombshell pledge has become Washington’s favorite “what if” scenario this spring.
The drama intensified on April 30, 2026, when the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that 287 candidates — 208 individuals and 79 organizations — are vying for this year’s prize. The committee’s secrecy rules prevent public identification of nominees for another half-century, but leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan have all confirmed they submitted Trump’s name before the Jan. 31, 2026 deadline.
Trump now sits atop the betting markets despite the Feb. 28 outbreak of war with Iran, a conflict that continues with no end in sight. U.K. bookmaker William Hill has made the president the front-runner, though his odds have tumbled significantly from their peak.
Bookmakers Bet Big on Trump
Spokesperson Lee Phelps told reporters that Trump’s status is unique among the field.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” Phelps said. He added that Trump is now priced at 3/1 — a 25 percent chance — down from a 55 percent implied probability quoted late last year.
The odds trajectory reveals the impact of the Iran conflict. Near Christmas, William Hill had Trump at 4/5, reflecting confidence before hostilities erupted. By March, those odds had drifted from 7/4 to 7/2, reflecting waning confidence as the conflict intensified.
Prediction markets tell a far less rosy story. As of May 1, 2026, Trump sits in third place on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market in the world, running on cryptocurrency, with just a 7 percent chance, trailing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Clinton Factor Looms Large
Clinton’s August 2025 vow — that she would personally nominate Trump if he ended the war in Ukraine — was widely viewed at the time as a clever political dare. Nine months later, with Moscow and Kyiv still locked in a grinding war and the White House’s diplomatic push effectively frozen, the former Secretary of State has not followed through, and her camp has remained conspicuously quiet.
Trump himself has oscillated between dismissiveness and bravado about the prize. Speaking to the Washington Examiner from Miami, Florida on March 12, he told reporters: “I don’t know. I’m not interested in it.” Two weeks later, he flipped, declaring that if he doesn’t get the Nobel, “nobody will ever get it.”
His allies have hammered the same theme. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested the U.S. military should win the Peace Prize every year. And in December 2025, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado made the extraordinary gesture of presenting her own human rights award to Trump, who called it “such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect.”
A Crowded and Controversial Field
The shortlist of speculative nominees this year reads like a global roll call. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is in heavy circulation. So are Pope Francis, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms volunteer aid network, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
Norwegian lawmaker Lars Haltbrekken has revealed he nominated Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski alongside Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland. “Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” Haltbrekken said. The pairing is a direct rebuke to Trump’s continued push to acquire Greenland from Denmark.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, who became Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in January 2025, declined to confirm whether Trump is among the nominees, citing the 50-year secrecy rule. But he acknowledged the field has shifted dramatically from a year ago.
Harpviken also expressed grave concern about 2023 laureate Narges Mohammadi, who suffered a heart attack inside an Iranian prison. In a development as of May 11, Iranian authorities transferred Mohammadi to a Tehran hospital and temporarily suspended her sentence on bail — though her family is demanding unconditional release, warning her condition remains critical and that any return to prison could prove fatal.
What Comes Next
The committee in Oslo will announce the 2026 winner on October 9, with the ceremony scheduled for December 10. Until then, the speculation machine — fueled by world leaders, prediction markets, and Trump’s own oscillating commentary — will only intensify.
Reflecting on his own legacy, Trump has said he wants to be remembered as “a great peacemaker.” Whether the committee in Oslo agrees — and whether Hillary Clinton ever makes good on her startling pledge — may shape the final months of this year’s most unpredictable Nobel race.
