Vice President JD Vance spent two years echoing the White House line on nearly everything, then posted a four-item to-do list for Republicans that begins with ending the war in Iran.

Vance blamed that war for his party’s midterm collapse in a lengthy post on X on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, a day after Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress. “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote.

“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest,” he wrote.

“But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” Vance said in the same post.

Turnout, he argued, was not the party’s problem. Data analysts on the Republican side had fixated on whether the 2026 electorate would resemble 2024, and the numbers held up well enough in state after state, he wrote. What sank the party, he said, was simpler: many people who backed Trump and Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026, and pollsters told him those voters were angry.

The Fourth Item Was Israel

Vance credited the four tasks to a pollster he described as “one of the smartest people I know in politics”: end the war in Iran, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first and “Change our relationship to Israel.”

The war, now in its eighth month, has driven gas and diesel prices sharply higher in the United States and globally since it began in late February, after Trump campaigned in 2024 on ending foreign wars and lowering prices. In an Election Day voter poll, 34 percent said the war was “crucial” to their vote. About 4 in 10 House voters said they were angry about the country’s direction.

Trump, for his part, said on Election Day that he would cut military aid to Israel at the end of this year, a year before the current memorandum of understanding expires. Democrats in the House and Senate have voted for measures to cut military aid or block weapons sales to Israel; Republicans rejected them almost across the board.

Not everyone on the right accepted the diagnosis. Jonathan Greenberg, director for combatting antisemitism at Defending Education and a former staffer for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, called Vance’s comments nonsense and said the vice president is wrong. Daniel Di Martino, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, wrote on X that the polling data did not support Vance’s claims, pointing to tariffs, deportations and corruption.

Trump Says He Would Do It Again

President Donald Trump had already said the war was part of the reason for the losses in election night interviews. Asked about Vance’s post, Trump told reporters: “I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term.” He added that he would do it again, because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

Asked whether he knew the post was coming, he said he knows how Vance feels about the war and thought the post was fine.

Republican lawmakers have spread the blame wider than Vance did, faulting the war, the administration’s tariff policies, a focus on pet projects such as the ballroom, and weak candidates.

Courting Trump Voters Who Feel Betrayed

Vance is courting disgruntled Trump voters to build a “new right” alliance ahead of 2028, according to unnamed sources. A Trump administration official told Fox News Digital that the four tasks amount to the vice president’s rallying cry for a coalition aligned with Trump’s original America First movement — staying out of foreign conflicts, affordability for families and border security.

The official framed the message as loyalty to Trump rather than a break of the kind former Vice President Mike Pence made after Jan. 6, aimed at Trump supporters who feel betrayed by the administration’s foreign policy.

A longtime skeptic of U.S. intervention abroad, Vance has sought to distance himself publicly from the conflict ahead of a possible 2028 run. Early in the war, it was reported that he was dubious of and opposed to striking Tehran as Trump weighed the decision. He defended Operation Epic Fury after it began, then steered clear of the subject for months. Trump said earlier in 2026 that his vice president had been perhaps not as keen on attacking Iran.

Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are widely considered the leading Republican contenders for 2028. The midterm results are widely seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.

Democrats held 54 Senate seats to Republicans’ 44 as of Wednesday, Nov. 4, a net gain of seven in a chamber where 51 seats are needed for control. They flipped seats in Texas, Ohio and Maine, while the Alaska and Mississippi races remained razor-thin.

The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., reposted the vice president’s assessment on X and endorsed it.