Matt Towery, a former Georgia state representative and pollster who urged President Donald Trump to run for office in 2014, issued a stark warning to Republicans on June 1, 2026, that his party faces serious trouble in the upcoming midterm elections.
Towery — whose polling firm correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton — acknowledged during an appearance on “Hannity” that Republican voter turnout is declining in Georgia, the state that narrowly supported Trump in 2024.
When Sean Hannity pressed Towery about the GOP’s best “pickup opportunities” in 2026, the longtime MAGA pollster delivered a sobering response that stunned viewers accustomed to his reliably optimistic outlook for the MAGA movement.
“I am concerned about one thing. And that is Republican turnout,” Towery said, pointing directly to Georgia.
Georgia Numbers Set Off Alarm Bells
The May 2026 primary election in Georgia saw more than 1.1 million Democratic ballots cast compared with about 941,000 Republican ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office — marking the first time Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout in a Georgia gubernatorial primary since 2006.
Democrats held a 150,000-vote advantage during the early voting period alone, a dramatic shift from 2022, when Republicans held a 15-percentage-point early-voting edge.
“That is not a good sign to me,” Towery told Hannity.
Gov. Brian Kemp, who is term-limited and not on the ballot, separately voiced similar worries. “I’m definitely concerned,” Kemp told reporters, adding that he believed many voters remained “truly undecided” across the Senate and downballot races.
All 14 of Georgia’s U.S. House seats are on the ballot — nine currently held by Republicans and five by Democrats. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election and will face the winner of a GOP runoff between Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley. Polls currently put Collins ahead.
The governor’s race features former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who has secured the Democratic nomination, while Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and healthcare executive Rick Jackson advance to a Republican runoff.
A Brutal Polling Landscape
National polling data presents an even bleaker outlook for Republicans. The latest New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading Republicans 50 percent to 39 percent in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters.
The same survey pegged Trump’s approval rating at just 37 percent. Only 30 percent of voters said launching the war in Iran was the right decision, and 64 percent disapproved of how the administration has handled the economy.
A Fox News national survey from May 2026 found that even a slim 51 percent majority of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation. Surveys have also shown some of Trump’s most reliable supporters — non-college-educated white voters and Latinos — drifting away.
Trump, for his part, has dismissed concerns over rising gas prices and spent much of the past several months promoting his $400 million White House ballroom.
Republican strategist Whit Ayres recently told the New York Times that the president has drifted from the issues that powered his comeback.
“The president was elected to juice the economy, to bring down inflation, to stop illegal immigration and to get away from woke culture,” Ayres said. He also blasted what he called a weaponization slush fund as a “whole new level of brazenness,” and warned: “If his highest goal were to maintain control of Congress, he would not be doing what he is doing.”
A Loyalist Losing the Faith
Towery’s shift is especially significant given his long track record as a Trump champion. He urged Trump to run for president back in 2014, pointing to the businessman’s “star power.”
He predicted Trump’s win in 2016 when few others did, and he forecast another Trump victory in 2020 by arguing pollsters were overlooking “the average guy on the street.” (Trump lost that contest to Joe Biden before reclaiming the White House in 2024.)
Towery urged the GOP to start hammering Trump’s accomplishments immediately, warning that waiting would be fatal.
“But you don’t hear about it, and I think Republicans need to start making that case whether they have to buy ads or whatever, right now, because it’ll be too late in October and November,” he said.
Primary Purges and General Election Peril
Trump has continued to flex his muscle inside the GOP, even knocking off internal critics like Rep. Thomas Massie, one of his loudest Republican opponents, who lost his Kentucky primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
But strategists warn that primary dominance does not translate into general election strength.
“It’s true, you can take out Republicans in primaries, but Republicans are going to be very vulnerable this fall,” Ayres said, describing a growing phenomenon on the right he labeled “Trump Disappointment Syndrome.”
For Towery — the man who saw Trump’s political future before almost anyone — the message to Republicans was unmistakable: the clock is ticking, and the numbers in Georgia suggest it may already be later than the party realizes.
