A dramatic shift is underway among Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged into striking distance of Vice President JD Vance ahead of the 2028 race. On July 23, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered the warning, telling viewers Vance should “watch out” as his once-commanding advantage evaporates.
A new University of New Hampshire poll shows Vance now holding just 36% support among likely Republican primary voters in the state, down sharply from the 53% he commanded in February. His backing has been “dropping like a rock,” Enten noted. Meanwhile, Rubio has vaulted from 7% in February to 26% this month, a trajectory the analyst compared to “climbing up to Mount Washington.”
The shrinking margin leaves Vance ahead by only 10 points, a cushion that historical precedent suggests is alarmingly thin for an incumbent vice president whose party controls the White House. Former Vice President Al Gore enjoyed a 40-point lead over his closest challenger in early 2000 polling, yet still barely defeated former Senator Bill Bradley in New Hampshire’s primary. Former Vice President George H.W. Bush led by 26 points in early 1988 New Hampshire surveys before stumbling in Iowa and needing a Granite State comeback. Against that historical backdrop, Enten said, a sitting vice president would typically dominate such early soundings, but that is “not the case” for Vance now.
National Favorability Deep Underwater
Vance’s difficulties extend well beyond New Hampshire. Navigator Research polling released June 16, 2026, placed his net favorability at -12 nationwide, as 40% of the public held positive views of him while 52% held negative views. The “very unfavorable” category alone captured 40% of respondents. That net figure has remained essentially frozen across the five most recent surveys conducted by the group, with the prior four registering -11.
The vice president’s standing trails that of Secretary of State Rubio, whose net favorability registers at -5, though Vance does edge out President Donald Trump’s -17. Far more striking is the contrast with Pope Leo, whose +35 net favorability dwarfs the vice president’s score even as Vance’s recently published book recounts his conversion to Catholicism. Among Catholics specifically, the pope’s net favorability reaches +57 while Vance remains at -12.
The erosion among women is particularly severe. Female voters give Vance a -20 net favorability rating while his standing with male respondents sits at -4, the survey found. Among self-identified “childless cat ladies,” his score plunges to -28. Roughly one-third of voters cite concern that he is “a Trump yes-man,” while an equal share point to earlier statements in which he suggested Trump could be “America’s Hitler” before joining the ticket. His approval ratings are negative across every issue tested, ranging from gas prices at net -39 to inflation and the cost of living at net -27. Immigration proves his least damaging issue at net -9.
Global Strategy Group conducted the poll, surveying 1,000 registered voters between June 4 and June 8, 2026; the results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Youth Polling Echoes the Slide
Data from younger Americans reinforces the pattern. The Yale Youth Poll’s spring 2026 findings show Vance capturing 43% support in the Republican primary field, while Rubio takes 17%. Yet the trajectory mirrors New Hampshire’s: compared with the fall 2025 poll, Vance has dropped eight percentage points while Rubio has climbed 12 percentage points.
That same survey documented intense discontent with the administration among young voters. Overall, 57% disapproved of President Trump’s job performance, a number that swelled to 68% among those aged 18-22 and 72% among respondents aged 23-29. Former Vice President Kamala Harris held the top position in the Democratic primary field at 20%, with California Governor Gavin Newsom close behind at 19%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%.
PR Push Fails to Reverse Momentum
The downturn persists despite what Enten characterized as “one of the biggest pushes of his vice presidency in terms of PR,” including a book tour designed to elevate Vance’s public profile. In New Hampshire specifically, “it doesn’t seem to be working in the Granite State,” he concluded.
Vance himself has recently projected optimism about Republican prospects. Following a meeting with House Republicans, he pledged the GOP would “support the results of the midterm elections” whatever the outcome. “We think we’re going to win. But ultimately that’s up to the American people,” he said.
Whether that confidence carries over to 2028 remains an open question. With more than two years before the first ballots are cast, current polling offers only a snapshot rather than a final judgment. But the trend is unmistakable: a vice president who once held a commanding position now watches his advantage shrink while a rival who was, in Enten’s words, in “the cellar” just six months ago steadily closes the gap.
