President Donald Trump faces a potential midterm catastrophe according to detailed voter and approval data released by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who warned on Aug. 13, 2026, that White House officials should be “running scared.”
During an appearance on “The Source” with anchor Kaitlan Collins on Aug. 13, Enten described the surge in Democratic primary participation as “absolutely bonkers huge,” with more than 25 million ballots already cast this cycle — exceeding the full 23 million from 2018, when enthusiasm among Democratic voters helped flip substantial House seats. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships will be decided this November.
The GOP currently maintains narrow control of both chambers, holding a 219-212 advantage in the House and a 53-47 edge in the Senate. Forecasters widely anticipate serious challenges for Republicans in defending those majorities.
Gas Prices and the Iran War Drive Trump’s Numbers Down
Trump’s approval ratings on economic fundamentals have reached historic lows. AAA reported gasoline prices at $4.0776 per gallon on Friday, up sharply from approximately $3 before the administration’s military confrontation with Iran began. That spike has produced an unprecedented 79 percent disapproval rating on gas prices — surpassing former President Joe Biden’s 72 percent peak, former President Barack Obama’s 68 percent high, and former President George W. Bush’s 75 percent mark.
Enten’s analysis shows that “no president has been hated more when it comes to gas prices.” Even two-thirds of working-class Republican voters — the president’s core constituency — express dissatisfaction with rising fuel costs.
The military engagement with Iran has inflicted severe political damage. Among voters describing themselves as extremely motivated, Trump’s Iran approval collapsed from 53 percent in July 2024 to just 29 percent in July 2026 — a precipitous 24-point drop. Only 27 percent of all voters expect the United States to secure a favorable agreement with Iran, and even Republican confidence stands at merely 41 percent.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai insisted oil prices would decline once the administration reaches resolution with Iran, but the political toll continues mounting. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from January 2025 showed Republicans holding an 18-point lead over Democrats on managing wars, conflicts, and terrorism. That margin has now flipped, with Democrats ahead by two points — a stunning 20-point reversal in under two years.
MAGA’s Core Voters Are Walking Away
Perhaps most alarming for Trump is erosion among the voters who propelled his political ascent. Americans without college degrees — who gave Trump a 13-point victory margin over Kamala Harris in 2024 — have turned sharply against the MAGA movement. Net approval among non-college adults plummeted from plus six percentage points last October to minus 22 points, according to data Enten reported on Aug. 7 — a 28-point collapse.
Trump’s personal net approval among that demographic has fallen to minus 19 points, representing a 32-point reversal from his 2024 election performance. Republicans led Democrats by 13 points among non-college voters immediately after the 2024 election; polling averages now show Democrats with a one-point advantage.
Collins observed that Trump frequently cites Enten’s data and asked what the analyst would be thinking if positioned inside the White House. Enten replied that record Democratic primary turnout signals a president who is “deeply underwater,” adding that historical patterns since 2006 show the party with stronger primary participation consistently wins the House — an ominous trend for the GOP.
He cautioned that Democratic vulnerabilities exist, noting Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed carries a minus-13 percent net favorability versus Iowa candidate Josh Turek’s plus-18 percent.
Southern States Shift Toward Democrats
Enten also highlighted on Thursday what he termed a potentially historic opening for Democrats in three Southern states. Current polling shows Sen. Jon Ossoff leading in his Georgia re-election bid, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper ahead in that state’s Senate race, and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico outpacing his Republican rival. North Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 2008; Texas has not done so since 1988.
GOP strategist David Winston conceded the danger, noting that if Democrats maintain economic advantages and capture double-digit margins among independent voters, a blue wave becomes plausible. With the midterms rapidly approaching, the data offers scant reassurance to an administration already preparing for a challenging autumn.
