The vice president went looking for a villain to explain $4 gasoline, and critics found one much closer to home than the foreign strongmen he had in mind.
Vice President JD Vance had tied pump prices directly to the Iran conflict at a CBS News town hall in Michigan on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, but he never mentioned that war when he stumped for his party’s candidates for federal office at a Republican midterm rally in Belgrade, Mont., on Monday, Oct. 26.
Detroit barber Keyshawn Wheatley said at the town hall that he was paying about $4.33 a gallon. “The first thing that’s going on, obviously, is what’s happening in the Middle East, particularly the fact that the Iranians are shooting at every commercial ship that they can,” Vance told him. The vice president predicted prices would fall once the Iran conflict ends.
The AAA national average for regular gasoline has held above $4 a gallon through October 2026, the first October on record above that line. Regular gas averaged $4.12 a gallon on Oct. 19, up 40.6 percent from $2.93 a year earlier. Prices have swung wildly this year, from $2.67 in January to $4.35 in May, and the 2026 average so far stands at $3.71 a gallon, compared with $2.98 in 2025.
The 20 Percent Was California’s
Vance offered the town hall a second explanation. “That’s actually the biggest reason why gas prices are so high is because when Joe Biden was president, we had about 20% of American refining capacity that went offline,” he said. PolitiFact rated that claim “false” on Oct. 19.
The roughly 20 percent decline applied to California’s refining capacity, not the nation’s, PolitiFact found. Energy Information Administration data cited by the fact-checkers showed operable crude distillation capacity staying relatively stable from early 2021 to the start of this year.
Hugh Daigle, a University of Texas at Austin petroleum engineering professor, told PolitiFact: “The biggest factor influencing high gasoline prices is the elevated cost of crude oil, caused by the reduction in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to export and pipeline facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.”
The War He Never Named
Vance addressed what he called the undecided voters in the room at Belgrade, saying he understood the complaint that gas costs too much. More work remains on inflation, he added, and he placed the blame on former President Joe Biden. Inflation is rising, though, and is higher now than it was in Biden’s final months in office.
The vice president walked the crowd through price spikes in 1979, 2001, 2007 and 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. “They skyrocket every time some tin-pot dictator decides to throw a tantrum. And we’ve got to remember that,” Vance told the crowd.
Democrats answer energy costs by whining and building a few windmills, Vance said, arguing that more domestic energy production would shield American families from global disruptions. He touted the administration’s record on tax cuts for working people, no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security, and cheaper prescription drugs.
The Iran war that President Donald Trump launched in February is choking off global oil flows and pushing pump prices higher, and Vance never directly mentioned that war during his Belgrade speech. Trump initially said the fighting would be over in a matter of weeks. The conflict has now run eight months with no sign of ending, and diesel hit a record high in September.
Insulting the Man Who Signs Your Checks
Within hours, the line was doing work its author never intended. Social media users seized on the gap in Vance’s timeline and pointed it at the president. One social media user asked, “Is the tin-pot dictator Donald Trump?”
Another called it an odd thing to call your boss. A third noted the mismatch between Vance blaming windmills and the president’s boast that oil companies are getting rich off Americans’ gas bills.
Fighter Jets in a Cold Hangar
The rally ran two hours, with Vance onstage for the final 30 minutes. About 1,500 people packed a private hangar at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, decorated with two F-5 fighter jets. The north-facing hangar doors stood open, and the temperature at the start was 35 degrees.
NASA administrator Jared Isaacman owns the jets as part of his private “Ghost Squadron” aerobatic fleet. Some observers online wrongly claimed the planes were government property.
Republican Aaron Flint is in a statistical tie with Democrat Sam Forstag in Montana’s Western U.S. House District. Republican Kurt Alme leads a four-way race for the seat of retiring Sen. Steve Daines but has yet to crack 50 percent in polling. Republicans are fighting to hold Congress on Nov. 3, and with the national average still above $4 a gallon, Vance’s explanation is now the part voters are repeating.
On Tuesday, Oct. 27, Vance campaigned in Howell, Mich., his third Michigan visit this cycle, backing Senate candidate Mike Rogers and gubernatorial candidate John James.
Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said in a statement: “Mike Rogers, John James, Tom Barrett, and Michigan Republicans have fully enabled and endorsed Trump and Vance’s corrupt, cost-raising agenda—from reckless tariffs and the Iran war to devastating healthcare cuts that funded billionaire tax breaks.”
