Fox News has spent months flooding the airwaves with messaging designed to make the Democratic Party radioactive — and its own polling is now undermining the effort in striking fashion. A wave of Fox News surveys released through late July 2026 shows Democratic Senate candidates leading or running competitively in multiple states, while President Donald Trump sits deeply underwater in his approval ratings — including in states he carried by double digits.

Democrats Outrun Their Own Party Brand

The pattern emerging from Fox’s summer polling is difficult to square with the network’s on-air narrative. New Republic columnist Greg Sargent, who analyzed the surveys, put it plainly: “Fox News has some very bad news for Fox News.“

The numbers tell the story race by race. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 53% to 45%, even though only 42% of voters view the Democratic Party favorably. The key: just 44% of Ohio voters see Brown as too closely tied to the Democratic establishment, while 55% do not — meaning a significant slice of voters who dislike the party still back Brown personally.

The same divergence appears elsewhere. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51–48, even as the Democratic Party polls at 45–54 in the state. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow 48–46 edge over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, despite his party sitting at 44–54 — a margin that reflects his recent entry into the race but remains notable. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley 53–44, even as the party registers at 43–56 statewide. And in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 50–46, with only 36% of Iowa voters describing him as “too liberal.”

The one clear exception is Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed trails Republican Mike Rogers 47–51 despite outpacing his party’s 43–56 standing. He wins only 75% of Black voters, 54% call his positions too extreme, and he trails among working-class voters by 10 points, according to the polling.

Trump’s Numbers: Underwater Across the Board

Whatever drag the Democratic Party’s brand exerts on its candidates, the Fox polling suggests President Trump is an even heavier burden for Republicans. His net favorability stands at -14 in Ohio, -9 in Texas, -13 in Iowa, and -19 in North Carolina. In several of those states, his deficit with independent voters stretches beyond 50 points.

The broader approval picture is equally grim. A Fox News poll conducted July 17–20, 2026, among 1,003 registered voters found Trump’s overall approval at 39% to 61% disapproval, a net -22. That figure has held roughly steady since May 2026 and represents a worsening trend.

Perhaps most alarming for the White House politically is the movement among rural voters — a group that has served as a cornerstone of Trump’s coalition. Trump’s rural approval flipped from a net +2 in June 2026 — when 51% approved and 49% disapproved — to a net -12 in July 2026, when 44% approved and 56% disapproved. That is a 14-point reversal in a single month. Even among rural voters, who still rate Trump comparatively better than the general electorate on issues like the economy, inflation, and immigration, every issue tested produced net-negative marks.

On foreign policy, the numbers are similarly dire. A separate Fox News poll released July 23, 2026, found Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record disapproval of 34% approve to 66% disapprove among registered voters.

The MAGA Messaging Machine Faces Its Own Data

The polling arrives as Trump allies have been working hard to shift the political conversation away from the president’s record. Stephen Miller recently appeared on Fox and argued that the Democratic Party’s primary ideology is “hatred for America.” Fox personalities have routinely depicted the party as captured by globalists and radical activists, and have called prominent Democratic figures traitors.

The strategic logic is clear enough: if voters can be persuaded that Democrats are too dangerous or extreme to support, the 2026 midterms become less of a verdict on the Trump administration’s record and more of a binary choice between two unacceptable options. Sargent argues the Fox polling data itself cuts against that framing, suggesting that many voters are drawing distinctions between individual Democratic candidates and the broader party — distinctions that the network’s own on-air messaging insists don’t exist.

What the Numbers Mean for November

Any single pollster’s surveys carry obvious limitations, and control of the Senate will hinge on far more than mid-summer approval ratings. Yet the consistency of the pattern — Democrats outperforming their party in state after state while Trump drags at Republican candidates from the top of the ticket — points to dynamics that party strategists on both sides will need to reckon with heading into November.

Sargent argued that the emerging picture suggests voters are willing to separate individual candidates from their national party, and that Trump’s deep unpopularity may be doing more to shape the landscape than any messaging campaign about Democratic extremism.